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Synergy
is the result when several components act synchronously
to achieve greater effect than the simple addition
of their individual efforts. In the midst of a plethora
of contradictory information all around, it is a difficult
task to maintain a sane direction. Therefore, we find
it necessary to take small steps, shorten our focus
to the smallest possible time span, and limit our
exposure such that even after an adverse change of
direction in the market or the stock, we can recover
fast and return to high profitability. In terms of
Systems Theory, we are taking advantage of the linearity
of a non linear system, by breaking it into manageable
smaller linear systems. A few examples will clarify
our statements a little better.
On January 7, 2002 in a press release, U.S. Bancorp
Piper Jaffray upgraded Applied Materials (AMAT) to
Strong Buy from Outperform, in the face of every one
talking about shrinkage in capital investment in chip
manufacturing equipment industry. The stock reached
a high of $48 on January 9 in two days and reached
a low of $39 by January 22. Until February 2 - the
date of writing this part, the stock had not touched
$45.22. The stock moved $14 considering both legs
of the movement in about 15 days. An investment of
$4800 (100 shares) went through a variation of $1400
in 15 days. It amounts to about 500% variation in
a year's time. Some stocks will show a variation of
40 times in a year. If by some means, we are able
to capture a reasonable percentage of this movement,
we can get a high return. Our efforts have been to
take advantage of this phenomenon.
“A
good business generates high cash flow. Peter Lynch,
the renowned Stock Market Guru with spectacular performance
of Magellan Fund under his watch, said in his book
“One Up on Wall Street” – “And if you find $20 stock
with a sustainable $10 per share cash flow, mortgage
your house and buy all the shares you can.” We are
not asking you to take such a drastic step. However,
we are trying to generate a high cash flow, while
maintaining minimum slippage in the invested capital
value consistent with NAV growth.”
Our business model allows a very high cash flow while
limiting slippage in invested capital to allow a consistent
growth in the Net Asset Value (NAV).
The
following table shows how a buy of a stock was brought
to profitabilty, even though the stock never reached
a profitable zone. It took some time, but it became
profitable by creating pseudo short sells.
| Buy |
Sell |
Profit
/Loss |
| 14.7 |
14.58 |
-0.22 |
| 14.01 |
14.39 |
0.38 |
| 12.18
|
12.84 |
0.64 |
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A
gross profit of 80 cents per share was generated,
even though the stock never reached a price higher
than 14.7. No additional capital was invested.
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